India's population is growing too rapidly? Think again.
India's population growth is slower than you think!
You’ve probably heard from a multitude of people that India’s high population growth is alarming and a significant cause of concern. After all, India is the most populated country with about 1.44 billion people.
It is true that historically, India’s population growth has been very high. However, that is not exactly true in the modern era. India was one of the first countries to begin a nationwide family planning programme back in 1952. A decade later in 1962, the programme was already the largest government-funded family programme planning in the world. This initiative, which has been ongoing for more than 70 years now, has had an immense effect on India’s population growth.
Some demographers believe that India’s current population growth could have disastrous impacts in the near future.
Let’s examine the reasons for this.
3 processes affect population growth: birth rate, death rate and migration. By looking at each process one by one, we can start to unravel the reality of India’s population growth.
1. Birth rate
One of the most commonly used indicators of birth rate is the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of a nation. TFR is the average number of children a woman is likely to have in her lifetime. Demographers have defined a “replacement rate” for population growth: 2.1 children per woman on average. Accounting for the death of a child during childhood or adolescence, if couples in a country have 2.1 children on average, its population remains the same. A TFR of 2.1 can be seen as a breakeven point for population growth.
As you might know, India’s TFR is lower than almost all countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. This is naturally a result of a higher degree of economic and social development. What you might not know is India’s TFR is now below the replacement rate. According to the World Bank, India’s TFR is 2.03 at the moment (which is below the global average). As India undergoes further development, this is likely going to continue to reduce.
Another interesting factor to consider is the TFRs of individual Indian states and UTs. Most western and southern states and UTs have TFRs well below the replacement rate. For example, Maharashtra (1.70) has a TFR very close to Czechia (1.70) and Denmark (1.72). The Indian state or UT with the lowest TFR, Sikkim with 1.10, has a TFR close to China (1.16).
The statistics get even more interesting and surprising when you look at urban TFRs across Indian states and UTs. Maharashtra has an urban TFR of 1.50, which is approximately equal to Norway’s TFR. The urban TFR of Sikkim is 0.7, which is the lowest in India and lower than any country around the globe (South Korea has the lowest TFR in the world of 0.88).
Looking at the trend in India’s TFR, the national fertility rate is likely going to plummet further. This decline in India’s birth rates has occurred faster than demographers had predicted.
2. Death rate
With improvements in healthcare, death rates in India have been declining for a long time now. India’s current death rate is 6.56 deaths per 1000 people per year, which is lower than the global average (7.55). In addition, India’s infant mortality rate is about 26 deaths per 1000 live births, which is lower than the global average of 28. India’s median age is just above 28, which is also lower than the global average of 30.
You might wonder, so what? All of these statistics are indicators of high population growth. And you would be right!
What these statistics do not portray is the rapid ageing of the Indian population, a problem which is going to get a lot worse in the coming years.
Let’s start with the median age itself. India’s median age has grown much more rapidly than most countries. In 2000, India’s median age was just 21.6 years (compared to about 28 today). The ageing of the Indian population can also be seen by India’s population pyramid. A population pyramid shows the percentage of the population made up of people of different ages. It is also segregated by gender.
The population pyramid shows the biggest age group in India is 15-19 years (9.2%), which is a concerning statistic because it shows the narrowing of the base of the pyramid. Narrowing of the base shows a decline in recent birth rates.
You’ve probably made the connection by now. The ageing of the Indian population will certainly lead to higher death rates. A study done in 2014 found that the death rate for Indian people aged 30-69 was 7.7 (per 1000 people per year) and 1.6 for people aged 15-29. Thus, it's clear that India’s overall death rate will increase as its population ages. The following graphs show projections for India’s death rate until 2100.
Even though the rise in death rates is not as drastic as the fall in birth rates currently, rising death rates are still a huge problem that India will have to face in the future.
3. Migration
Net migration rate is defined as the immigration rate minus the emigration rate per 1000 people per year. India’s net migration rate is currently very close to 0 (-0.329 in 2023). The UN projects that this rate will remain stagnant in the future as well, making migration practically irrelevant to India’s population growth despite being an extremely important factor in underpopulated countries like Australia and Germany.
Conclusion
You have probably realised that while India may seem overpopulated now, it won’t always be that way. Population decline in India will begin in the mid-2060s.
There are many problems associated with population decline. The most important one is a lack of labour. A lack of labour is, of course, a major cause of declining economic productivity. Labour shortages will also increase individual labour costs (or wages), giving industries less of an incentive to set up factories in India.
Another problem associated with a declining population is the increased dependence on immigration. Incorporating immigrants in your country has all kinds of issues and processes associated with it. Immigrants have to be fed, housed and given jobs. Furthermore, citizenship documents have to be made and new ID proofs (or Aadhar cards) will have to be issued. Logistical challenges related to these processes will increase with higher immigration rates.
This is evident in many developed economies. Several European (e.g. Germany) and East Asian (e.g. South Korea) countries are facing these exact problems. We’re only about 40 years away until we see this in India.
India may currently have a demographic advantage over countries like China and Japan, but we need to remember that it won’t always be this way. As our country develops, birth rates will drop further and death rates will increase further. Population decline isn’t just likely, it is inevitable.
Credits
This blog is inspired by a post on dataforindia.com, an excellent initiative by Rukmini S. I have been inspired by her work ever since I read her eye-opening book “Whole Numbers and Half Truths”. I wanted to highlight some of the data she has curated and add my thoughts on it! This is the aforementioned post: Population growth in India.
A couple of the maps used in this blog have been because of India in Pixels, an amazing initiative by Ashris!
This blog wouldn’t have been possible without the amazing work of these two people! Many thanks to them.
Intersting Article Sifar.
A sub-pattern of the population dynamics is rapid decline in tax-paying population.
Most tax-paying families, have a pipulation growth ratio of 0.5 due to self-imposed one child norm in educated families - would be interesting to see how this impacts population dynamics going forward.
Sifar,
Currently the population pyramid for India is near perfect with more percentage of people in WORKING AGE or younger.
In 20 years from now, the population pyramid will start becoming skewed with more people in NON-WORKING population class and may also become a big liability for the country.
In the above context, should India rather consider improving TFR ( or indirectly the population) than controlling it ?
Vinay